4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 19 at the 49

New England Patriots 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to ATL 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model