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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 14

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(:44) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.75 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model