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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2017-09-10 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

ARI
51.0%
DET
49.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET defense: +0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI offense: +0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 24
–
DET 23
Projected margin: ARI by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

ARI

Deone Bucannon LB Out Ankle
Mike Iupati G Questionable Tricep
Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Calf

DET

Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Knee
Kenny Golladay WR Questionable Ankle
Corey Robinson T Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 23
–
DET 35

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:29 TD ARI (11:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 28-J.Bethel at ARI 18. 28-J.Bethel for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – DET 0
  • Q1 02:46 FG ARI (2:46) 4-P.Dawson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 10 – DET 0
  • Q2 04:30 TD DET (4:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – DET 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG DET (:03) 5-M.Prater 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-14-J.Rudock. ARI 10 – DET 9
  • Q3 05:42 TD ARI (5:42) 33-K.Williams up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – DET 9
  • Q3 03:15 TD DET (3:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 25-T.Riddick for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. ARI 17 – DET 15
  • Q4 09:33 TD DET (9:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – DET 21
  • Q4 04:22 TD DET (4:22) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 19-K.Golladay for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – DET 27
  • Q4 04:13 TD DET (4:13) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle intended for 38-A.Ellington INTERCEPTED by 35-M.Killebrew [91-A.Robinson] at ARI 35. 35-M.Killebrew for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – DET 34
  • Q4 01:38 TD ARI (1:38) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 14-J.Nelson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – DET 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:42) 2-K.Redfern punts 50 yards to ARI 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 33-K.Williams to ARI 33 for no gain.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:08) 2-A.Lee punts 41 yards to DET 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 28 for 11 yards (27-T.Branch). PENALTY on DET-36-D.Washington, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at DET 28.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (2:46) 4-P.Dawson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:16) 5-M.Prater punts 32 yards to ARI 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:00) 2-A.Lee punts 42 yards to DET 38, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:01) 5-M.Prater punts 30 yards to ARI 30, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-54-S.Longa.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (:44) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 56%

    (:03) 5-M.Prater 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-14-J.Rudock.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 25%

    (11:39) 5-M.Prater punts 47 yards to ARI 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 29%

    (4:09) 5-M.Prater punts 30 yards to ARI 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-K.Williams. Penalty on DET-54-S.Longa, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on ARI-96-K.Martin, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:29) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to DET 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 39-J.Agnew to DET 33 for 24 yards (35-E.Penny).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 18 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:18) 2-A.Lee punts 44 yards to DET 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 28 for 13 yards (35-E.Penny).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 78%

    (2:27) (No Huddle) 3-C.Palmer up the middle to DET 28 for 2 yards (40-J.Davis).