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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 40

Detroit Lions 6 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) 5-M.Prater 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-14-J.Rudock.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.07 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model