Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 83

Detroit Lions 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(9:42) 2-K.Redfern punts 50 yards to ARI 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 33-K.Williams to ARI 33 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.34 EP
62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 83, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model