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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 58

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 2-A.Lee punts 41 yards to DET 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 28 for 11 yards (27-T.Branch). PENALTY on DET-36-D.Washington, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at DET 28.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.83 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 58, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP