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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 80

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to CIN 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 40 for 12 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.; 51-K.Correa).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.57 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 37, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model