Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.108 vs Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.034 EPA/dropback
- CIN defense: -0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
BAL
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 04:47 FG BAL (4:47) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – CIN 0
- Q2 02:00 TD BAL (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 18-J.Maclin for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – CIN 0
- Q2 01:31 TD BAL (1:31) 28-T.West left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – CIN 0
- Q3 01:09 FG BAL (1:09) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 20 – CIN 0
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CIN 4th & 18 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(12:46) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to BAL 35, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 36. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 36 for no gain (81-T.Kroft).
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Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%
(4:47) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 26%
(14:55) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 16 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(7:22) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to CIN 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 40 for 12 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.; 51-K.Correa).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(5:52) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:43) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 37 for 15 yards (59-N.Vigil).
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Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(1:09) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(:31) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to BAL 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 31 for 14 yards (50-J.Evans). PENALTY on BAL-10-C.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 25. {M.Campanaro credited with 8 yard return due to the penalty}
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Q4 BAL 4th & 12 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(12:34) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to CIN 29, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 1 yard (51-K.Correa).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 40%
(9:54) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(7:24) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CIN 48, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 13 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 95%
(4:43) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right [99-M.Judon]. {thrown away}
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Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 77 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 72%
(4:16) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to CIN 41, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 42 for 1 yard (88-V.Mayle).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 49 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 26%
(1:13) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.