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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.79 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model