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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 7

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +4.88 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 7, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +0.94 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -1.16 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model