Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(:31) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to BAL 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 31 for 14 yards (50-J.Evans). PENALTY on BAL-10-C.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 25. {M.Campanaro credited with 8 yard return due to the penalty}

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.11 EP
55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model