Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

(12:34) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to CIN 29, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 1 yard (51-K.Correa).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.40 EP
68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model