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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 87

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CIN 48, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.80 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 87, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 45, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model