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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.86 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model