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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 7

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 7, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP