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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 44

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:32) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at SF 48 for -8 yards (58-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.47 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model