Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CAR offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- SF offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- SF defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Brian Hoyer (SF) -0.014 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.051 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
CAR
SF
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 03:10 TD CAR (3:10) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 19-R.Shepard for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 21. 21-yds YAC CAR 6 – SF 0
- Q2 03:28 FG CAR (3:28) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 10 – SF 0
- Q2 00:05 FG CAR (:05) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 13 – SF 0
- Q3 11:32 TD CAR (11:32) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 28-J.Stewart for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 11. 11-yds YAC CAR 19 – SF 0
- Q3 03:14 FG CAR (3:14) 9-G.Gano 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 23 – SF 0
- Q3 00:13 FG SF (:13) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. CAR 23 – SF 3
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(12:12) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to SF 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 18 for 9 yards (43-F.Whittaker).
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Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 46Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 34%
(7:53) 5-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to CAR 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(6:13) 5-M.Palardy punts 58 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(14:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to SF 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
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Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 39%
(6:32) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at SF 48 for -8 yards (58-T.Davis).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 88%
(3:28) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
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Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 36%
(:46) 44-K.Juszczyk up the middle to CAR 45 for no gain (98-S.Lotulelei; 96-W.Horton).
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Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(10:13) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to CAR 29, Center-86-K.Nelson. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 32 for 3 yards (38-A.Colbert).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%
(3:14) 9-G.Gano 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
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Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 21%
(1:19) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short left to 15-P.Garcon to CAR 30 for 22 yards (59-L.Kuechly). Penalty on CAR-26-D.Worley, Defensive Holding, declined. Caught at CAR 46. 16-yds YAC
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Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 82%
(:13) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
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Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%
(8:54) 28-C.Hyde right end to CAR 1 for no gain (58-T.Davis).