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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 21

Carolina Panthers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.81 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model