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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(:46) 44-K.Juszczyk up the middle to CAR 45 for no gain (98-S.Lotulelei; 96-W.Horton).

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.79 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.47 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model