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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 2

Carolina Panthers 20 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 9-G.Gano 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 2, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP