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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short left to 15-P.Garcon to CAR 30 for 22 yards (59-L.Kuechly). Penalty on CAR-26-D.Worley, Defensive Holding, declined. Caught at CAR 46. 16-yds YAC

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.86 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model