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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 26

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(:13) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.60 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.52 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model