Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
San Francisco 49ers
4th & 1 at the 1
San Francisco 49ers 3 – Carolina Panthers 23
What Actually Happened
(8:54) 28-C.Hyde right end to CAR 1 for no gain (58-T.Davis).
The Three Options
GO
+3.88 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
- 38% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.76 EP
KICK
+1.85 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT
-0.21 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
