Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 54

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – New England Patriots 10

(13:22) 2-D.Colquitt punts 36 yards to NE 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.77 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model