KC @ NE — 4th & Data

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HC Andy Reid

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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick

Thursday 2017-09-07 · 20:30 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 8.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

27.5%

72.5%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NE defense: -0.223 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
Tom Brady (NE): +0.236 EPA/dropback in prior starts
NE offense: +0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
KC offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 21

–

NE 30

Projected margin: NE by 9 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

KC

Parker Ehinger G Doubtful Knee

Reggie Ragland LB Doubtful Knee

Ron Parker S Questionable Ankle

NE

Vincent Valentine DT Doubtful Knee

Adam Butler DT Questionable Knee

Nate Ebner S Questionable Shoulder

Cameron Fleming T Questionable Ankle

Harvey Langi LB Questionable Concussion

Malcolm Mitchell WR Questionable Knee

Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 42

–

NE 27

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 12:12 TD NE (12:12) 77-N.Solder reported in as eligible. 35-M.Gillislee up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – NE 6
Q1 03:10 TD KC (3:10) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 84-D.Harris for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – NE 7
Q2 15:00 FG NE (15:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. KC 7 – NE 10
Q2 07:31 TD NE (7:31) 77-N.Solder reported in as eligible. 35-M.Gillislee left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – NE 16
Q2 00:17 TD KC (:17) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – NE 17
Q3 09:28 TD KC (9:28) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – NE 17
Q3 05:03 TD NE (5:03) 77-N.Solder reported in as eligible. 35-M.Gillislee right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 21 – NE 23
Q3 00:12 FG NE (:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. KC 21 – NE 27
Q4 14:19 TD KC (14:19) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 27-K.Hunt for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – NE 27
Q4 05:19 TD KC (5:19) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 34 – NE 27
Q4 04:05 TD KC (4:05) 35-C.West right guard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 41 – NE 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 10

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

(9:34) 77-N.Solder reported in as eligible. 35-M.Gillislee up the middle to KC 10 for no gain (97-A.Bailey, 96-B.Logan).
Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 8

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

(15:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(13:22) 2-D.Colquitt punts 36 yards to NE 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
Q2 KC 4th & 17 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(3:57) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to NE 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC. PENALTY on KC-13-D.Thomas, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at NE 25.
Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(2:55) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to KC 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-D.Thomas, dead ball declared at KC 17 for no gain. PENALTY on KC-51-F.Zombo, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at KC 17.
Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 56

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP

p(convert) 68%

(11:59) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to NE 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(9:37) 6-R.Allen punts 35 yards to KC 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-T.Hill MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 40. 10-T.Hill to KC 40 for no gain (37-J.Richards). PENALTY on KC-49-D.Sorensen, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at KC 40.
Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 27%

(7:14) 6-R.Allen punts 35 yards to KC 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(6:29) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to NE 46, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 79

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP

p(convert) 60%

(3:03) 2-D.Colquitt punts 59 yards to NE 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 28 for 8 yards.
Q3 NE 4th & 14 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

(:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 40

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 49%

(12:29) 77-N.Solder reported in as eligible. 35-M.Gillislee up the middle to KC 40 for no gain (51-F.Zombo; 50-J.Houston).
Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(10:37) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to NE 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 23-P.Chung.
Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(9:06) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to KC 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 40 for 7 yards.
Q4 NE 4th & 17 at the 82 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(4:31) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to KC 28, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-D.Thomas to KC 31 for 3 yards (36-B.King; 49-J.Cardona). PENALTY on KC-51-F.Zombo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 31.