Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to NE 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC. PENALTY on KC-13-D.Thomas, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at NE 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.39 EP
75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model