Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 56

New England Patriots 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to KC 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-D.Thomas, dead ball declared at KC 17 for no gain. PENALTY on KC-51-F.Zombo, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at KC 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.61 EP
58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -2.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model