Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 74

New England Patriots 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 6-R.Allen punts 35 yards to KC 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-T.Hill MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 40. 10-T.Hill to KC 40 for no gain (37-J.Richards). PENALTY on KC-49-D.Sorensen, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at KC 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.12 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model