Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 85

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – New England Patriots 17

(6:29) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to NE 46, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.64 EP
64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 85, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model