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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 79

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 2-D.Colquitt punts 59 yards to NE 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 28 for 8 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.73 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP