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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 14

New England Patriots 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.12 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model