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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 40

New England Patriots 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 77-N.Solder reported in as eligible. 35-M.Gillislee up the middle to KC 40 for no gain (51-F.Zombo; 50-J.Houston).

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.32 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model