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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 10

New England Patriots 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 77-N.Solder reported in as eligible. 35-M.Gillislee up the middle to KC 10 for no gain (97-A.Bailey, 96-B.Logan).

The Three Options

GO +3.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.53 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model