Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 81

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(4:01) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to DAL 45, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-55-J.Thomas. PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.45 EP
68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 81, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model