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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2017-09-10 · 20:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

NYG
36.5%
DAL
63.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.220 vs Eli Manning (NYG) -0.025 EPA/dropback
  • NYG defense: -0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 22
–
DAL 25
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NYG

Keenan Robinson LB Out Concussion
Odell Beckham WR Questionable Ankle

DAL

Anthony Hitchens LB Out Ankle
Jourdan Lewis CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 3
–
DAL 19

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:28 FG DAL (6:28) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYG 0 – DAL 3
  • Q2 12:51 FG DAL (12:51) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYG 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 01:46 TD DAL (1:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 82-J.Witten for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – DAL 12
  • Q2 00:07 FG DAL (:07) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYG 0 – DAL 16
  • Q3 05:20 FG NYG (5:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – DAL 16
  • Q4 02:00 FG DAL (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYG 3 – DAL 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 48%

    (11:16) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to NYG 5, impetus ends at NYG 3, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 17-D.Harris to NYG 6 for 1 yard (35-K.Frazier).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 11 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:30) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to DAL 46, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer. Dallas' Terrance Williams has an ankle injury; return is questionable.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (6:28) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:31) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to DAL 29, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (9:34) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to DAL 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 45%

    (6:52) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to NYG 9, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:01) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to DAL 45, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-55-J.Thomas. PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 45.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (1:27) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to DAL 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 24 for no gain.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (5:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 51%

    (1:46) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 32 yards to NYG 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 12 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:47) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 20 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 51%

    (8:34) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 32 yards to NYG 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:32) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 34-S.Vereen to DAL 49 for 6 yards (38-J.Heath).