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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to DAL 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 24 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP