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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 55

New York Giants 3 – Dallas Cowboys 19

What Actually Happened

(:32) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 34-S.Vereen to DAL 49 for 6 yards (38-J.Heath).

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -0.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model