4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 30

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 7-C.Catanzaro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.22 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model