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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2017-09-10 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NYJ
29.2%
BUF
70.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.175 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • BUF defense: +0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Josh McCown (NYJ): -0.023 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 19
–
BUF 26
Projected margin: BUF by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NYJ

Jordan Leggett TE Out Knee
Rontez Miles S Out Eye

BUF

Tanner Vallejo LB Out Knee
Jerel Worthy DT Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 12
–
BUF 21

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:30 TD BUF (11:30) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 85-C.Clay for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone. NYJ 0 – BUF 6
  • Q2 06:39 FG NYJ (6:39) 7-C.Catanzaro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – BUF 7
  • Q2 01:49 FG NYJ (1:49) 7-C.Catanzaro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 6 – BUF 7
  • Q3 06:55 TD BUF (6:55) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 18-A.Holmes for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at NYJ 1. NYJ 6 – BUF 13
  • Q3 02:06 TD NYJ (2:06) 15-J.McCown up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 12 – BUF 14
  • Q4 12:51 TD BUF (12:51) 35-M.Tolbert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 12 – BUF 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:08) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to BUF 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 20 for 7 yards (51-J.Stanford).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:29) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to NYJ 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 84-K.Raymond.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:10) 4-L.Edwards punts 58 yards to BUF 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 15-B.Tate to BUF 38 for 12 yards (95-J.Martin). Return credited to BUF 33 (spot of foul). Penalty on BUF-44-D.Lacey, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on BUF-36-T.Elston, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 33.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 75%

    (6:39) 7-C.Catanzaro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 18 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 79%

    (4:03) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 66%

    (1:49) 7-C.Catanzaro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 16 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 22%

    (:38) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:08) 4-L.Edwards punts 29 yards to BUF 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to NYJ 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-K.Raymond to NYJ 21 for no gain (26-T.Jones, 57-L.Alexander).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:18) 4-L.Edwards punts 58 yards to BUF 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 36 for 19 yards (53-E.Robinson).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (2:06) 15-J.McCown up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (9:36) 4-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to BUF 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-20-M.Williams.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:46) 6-C.Schmidt punts 55 yards to NYJ 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-K.Raymond MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 36. 84-K.Raymond pushed ob at BUF 39 for 25 yards (57-L.Alexander).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:06) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to NYJ 40, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-K.Raymond MUFFS catch, touched at NYJ 40, and recovers at NYJ 40. 84-K.Raymond to NYJ 42 for 2 yards (58-M.Milano).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 15-B.Tate to BUF 17 for 2 yards (20-M.Williams).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:52) 6-C.Schmidt punts 32 yards to NYJ 41, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 84-K.Raymond.