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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 28

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.30 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model