Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 61

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 7

(12:08) 4-L.Edwards punts 29 yards to BUF 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.71 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model