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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 64

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to NYJ 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-K.Raymond to NYJ 21 for no gain (26-T.Jones, 57-L.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.30 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model