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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 61

New York Jets 12 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 4-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to BUF 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-20-M.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.95 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP