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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 91

Buffalo Bills 21 – New York Jets 12

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 6-C.Schmidt punts 55 yards to NYJ 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-K.Raymond MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 36. 84-K.Raymond pushed ob at BUF 39 for 25 yards (57-L.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.54 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 91, worth -5.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 48, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model