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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 67

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to BUF 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 20 for 7 yards (51-J.Stanford).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.50 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model