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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to NYJ 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 84-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model