Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 84

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 4-L.Edwards punts 58 yards to BUF 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 15-B.Tate to BUF 38 for 12 yards (95-J.Martin). Return credited to BUF 33 (spot of foul). Penalty on BUF-44-D.Lacey, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on BUF-36-T.Elston, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 33.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.74 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 84, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model