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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 24

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 6-C.Sturgis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.01 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model