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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2017-09-10 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

PHI
30.1%
WAS
69.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.206 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) -0.055 EPA/dropback
  • WAS defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • PHI offense: -0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 21
–
WAS 27
Projected margin: WAS by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

PHI

No players on the report.

WAS

Ryan Anderson LB Questionable Stinger
Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Hip
Spencer Long C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 30
–
WAS 17

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:43 TD PHI (11:43) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 13-N.Agholor for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Ioannidis]. PHI 6 – WAS 0
  • Q2 13:28 TD PHI (13:28) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 29-L.Blount for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-36-D.Swearinger, Defensive Offside, declined. PHI 13 – WAS 0
  • Q2 08:39 TD WAS (8:39) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right intended for 43-D.Sproles INTERCEPTED by 91-R.Kerrigan (92-S.McGee) [92-S.McGee] at PHI 24. 91-R.Kerrigan for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – WAS 6
  • Q2 01:26 TD WAS (1:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 25-C.Thompson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Cox]. PHI 13 – WAS 13
  • Q2 00:04 FG PHI (:04) 6-C.Sturgis 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 16 – WAS 14
  • Q3 10:42 FG PHI (10:42) 6-C.Sturgis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 19 – WAS 14
  • Q3 02:11 FG WAS (2:11) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. PHI 19 – WAS 17
  • Q4 02:02 FG PHI (2:02) 6-C.Sturgis 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 22 – WAS 17
  • Q4 01:38 TD PHI (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at WAS 24 for -8 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham) [55-B.Graham], RECOVERED by PHI-91-F.Cox at WAS 20. 91-F.Cox for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. PHI 28 – WAS 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:43) 5-T.Way punts 30 yards to PHI 44, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 36%

    (4:57) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to PHI 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (2:55) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to WAS 40, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, touched at WAS 40, RECOVERED by PHI-88-T.Burton at WAS 39.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.03 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:37) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to PHI 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-47-Q.Dunbar.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:03) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to WAS 31, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 12 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 85%

    (10:42) 6-C.Sturgis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (2:11) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 25%

    (6:51) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to WAS 1, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-26-J.Watkins.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:53) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to PHI 47, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

    (2:02) 6-C.Sturgis 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 46%

    (:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 86-J.Reed.