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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 51

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to WAS 1, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-26-J.Watkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.99 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model